Winter Outlook Report for 13/14 released
National Grid provides information to participants in the gas and electricity markets by publishing an outlook of supply and demand. We do this for both the winter and summer ahead. Recognising that our sources of data are incomplete, for the Winter Outlook Report we conduct a consultation exercise designed both to help inform the industry and also to provide us with feedback to support the production of the Winter Outlook Report.
Key points from the report incude:
- Last winter’s peak electricity demand was 56.4GW (12/12/12) and highest gas demand was 393 mcm/d (16/1/13)
- 2013/14 winter demand forecasts are similar to the 2012/13 weather corrected demands for both gas and electricity
- Gas supply is forecast to be similar to last year for UKCS and Norway, with both LNG and Continent uncertain and subject to demand/prices. Some additional (flexible) storage expected
- Electricity demand remains well below pre-recession levels, with generator availability decreasing to give a forecast de-rated surplus of 6% at winter peak, in line with Ofgem’s reference scenario in their recently published electricity capacity assessment