National Grid provides overview of summer supply and demand for 2014
“Demand on the electricity transmission system has been dropping consistently since 2006 and looks likely to continue.”
National Grid has provided participants in the gas and electricity markets with a detailed overview of supply and demand for the summer ahead based on our latest views and analysis.
This year’s summer report concludes that, although the make-up of gas supplies can vary significantly day to day this summer, gas supplies from the UK Continental Shelf and imports from Norway are expected to be similar to those of recent summers. Flows from the continent to the UK via interconnectors are also expected to mirror those of the same period in recent years.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to the UK are likely to be lower than last year as Asia continues to dominate the global LNG market.
Summer 2014 gas demand is forecast to fluctuate significantly to take into account colder than normal seasonal temperatures like those seen in 2013.
Demand for net storage injection should be much lower than in summer 2013 owing to the difference in conditions over the past two winters. Low demand during the past winter months has meant comparatively low use of storage.
Electricity supply and demand
Demand on the electricity transmission system has been dropping consistently since 2006 and looks likely to continue. The trend is partly due to reductions in energy use, along with renewables and smaller scale conventional sources connecting to the lower voltage distribution networks.
If the weather matches the long-term seasonal average, peak demand during June, July and August is likely to be 38.4 GW, with this summer’s minimum at 19 GW expected in late July.
Generation capacity at the start of the summer will be 76.4 GW including interconnectors, but could potentially be less if more gas stations are mothballed during the summer months. Margins should be adequate throughout the season, with minimum generating availability of 43.1 GW. Unforeseen demands can be met by nuclear, coal and gas coupled with the flexible generation provided by wind farms.
Based on current price spreads between GB and EU, full imports are expected on the Interconnexion France Angleterre (IFA) and BritNed interconnectors and there’s potential for imports to GB from Ireland at times of high wind, particularly overnight.
You can read the full Summer Outlook Report for 2014 here.