A packed audience of more than 250 energy industry stakeholders gathered in central London to discuss National Grid’s 2013 Future Energy Scenarios (FES) and what they might mean for the UK’s long-term energy mix.
Future Energy Scenarios
“The process we go through in developing the Future Energy Scenarios is based very strongly on stakeholder engagement.”
Richard Smith, National Grid’s Head of Energy Strategy and Policy
The Climate Change Act 2008 introduced a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% below the 1990 baseline by 2050.
Source: Future Energy Scenarios report
National Grid’s FES document is published annually and provides detailed analysis of credible future energy scenarios out to 2035 and 2050. It is used as a reference point for a range of modelling activities, enabling us to identify future strategic electricity and gas network investment requirements.
Putting the challenges facing the industry and the UK as a whole into context, Richard Smith, National Grid’s Head of Energy Strategy and Policy, described a world characterised by economic, political, social and technological uncertainty. He also reinforced the importance of the wide-ranging and on-going engagement with stakeholders in shaping the scenarios laid out in the FES publication.
Delegates heard detailed analysis of two scenarios: Slow Progression sees comparatively slow developments in renewable and low carbon energy, and the renewable energy target for 2020 is not met. The carbon reduction target for 2020 is achieved but not the indicative target for 2030.
Under the Gone Green scenario, the UK meets its key environmental targets: 15% of all energy from renewable sources by 2020, greenhouse gas emissions meeting the carbon budgets out to 2027, and an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The Accelerated Growth scenario, which projected developments beyond existing environmental targets, has been retired following consistent feedback that it was no longer credible.
Speakers during the event included Emily Bourne, Head of the Electricity Market Reform Programme Team at the Department of Energy and Climate Change. She set out the Government’s position on Electricity Market Reform and provided an update on key elements of the process such as Contracts for Difference and Capacity Market.
Other sessions on the day included insight into energy demand and supply, future network development, future system operation and signposts to 2020.
A more detailed report about National Grid’s 2013 Future Energy Scenarios (FES) will appear on this site soon. Click here for more on FES.