FES fast facts
Ten things you need to know about National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios 2014
FES fast facts
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) represent transparent, holistic paths through that uncertain landscape to help Government, our customers and other stakeholders make informed decisions.
UK Future Energy Scenarios
Our goal is for everyone who has an interest in the UK’s energy future to engage with us so that we can develop the most rich, robust and plausible range of scenarios possible.
Source: UK Future Energy Scenarios
National Grid has recently published its Future Energy Scenarios (FES) for 2014. These scenarios describe plausible and credible projections for the future of UK energy, out to 2035 and 2050. But did you know..?
1) Fantastic four… We’ve developed four scenarios for what the UK’s future energy landscape might look like based on the dynamics of affordability and sustainability. They are Gone Green, Slow Progression, No Progression and Low Carbon Life.
2) Energy issues are real for all of us… According to DECC projections, 2.33 million households in England will be affected by fuel poverty in 2014 and the number is rising.
3) The heat is on… Nearly half the energy we use is for heating and heat is a major component in our 2014 scenarios.
4) Hitting the targets… Our Gone Green scenario would allow the UK to meet its various environmental targets. For example, the Climate Change Act 2008 introduced a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% below the 1990 baseline by 2050…
5) … and the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive sets a target for the UK to achieve 15% of all its energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020.
6) If you build it… Under our Gone Green scenario, combined build rates for offshore and onshore wind peak at 2.75 to 4GW/yr by 2020. Achievable? China has managed 20GW/yr and the USA 13GW/yr.
7) Changing behaviour… We expect consumer affordability and government incentives to be major factors in determining the future adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps. Did you know there are currently only 9,000 electric vehicles on the road?
8) Pressure on prices… Wholesale oil prices have almost doubled between 2005 and 2013; wholesale gas prices have increased by a third and wholesale electricity prices, while volatile in 2007/08, have increased by ~20% since 2009.
9) We listened… Our stakeholders told us they wanted to see a broader range of scenarios and a stronger narrative underpinning FES 2014, in particular relating to the energy ‘trilemma’ of affordability, sustainability and security of supply. We have reflected this feedback in our preparation of the 2014 scenarios.
10) Your insights count… More than 180 organisations have given their views in our largest ever stakeholder engagement programme to develop the 2014 scenarios.
Join the debate…
You can have your say on the UK’s future energy challenge by visiting our LinkedIn site here.
To read more…
Click here to download our FES 2014 document.
Click here to read an overview about FES 2014 from Richard Smith, National Grid’s Head of Energy Strategy and Policy.